Nea obiara nka nkyerɛ wo wɔ batere a wɔde ahoɔden yɛ foforo ho ni: bere a obiara gye akyinnye sɛ ebia "ɛfata" no, Texas gyee adetɔfo dɔla ɔpepem 750 komm wɔ awɔw bere biako pɛ mu denam batere a wɔde sie so. Asɛmmisa no nyɛ sɛ ebia batere tew ɛka so bio-ɛyɛ sɛnea wɔresan asiesie ahoɔden sikasɛm wɔ ɔkwan biara so wɔ ɔkwan a ɛyɛ nwonwa so.
Nsakrae no rekɔ so ntɛmntɛm sen sɛnea dodow no ara hu. Battery ho ka akɔ fam 93% firi afe 2010, na ɛno yɛ mfitiaseɛ ara kwa. Nea ɛma eyi yɛ anigye titiriw ne sɛ ɛka a wɔtew so no ba wɔ akwan horow abiɛsa a ɛsono emu biara mu, na emu biara bue sika a wɔde sie ahorow ahorow. Sɛ yɛte saa nsɛm yi ase-nea mefrɛ no Three Horizons of Battery Cost Impact-da nea enti a battery afi sɔhwɛ a ne bo yɛ den so akɔ sikasɛm mu ahiade so adi.
Nneɛma Abiɛsa a Ɛbɛma Battery Ka Ho
Nhwehwɛmu dodow no ara bu batere ho ka sɛ nɔma biako a ɛrekɔ fam. Ɛno hwere asɛm no. Ɛka a wɔtew so no yɛ adwuma wɔ bere ahorow abiɛsa a ɛsono emu biara mu, na emu biara de mfaso ba wɔ akwan horow so titiriw.
Horizon 1. Ɔde ne nsa kyerɛɛ ne sodi hardware no ankasa ho dwuma-lithium-ion nkwammoaa bo a ɛrekɔ fam ne kari pɛ-a ɛwɔ-nhyehyɛe no mu nneɛma mu. Eyi ne nea wonya nsɛmti, na ɛfata. Nanso ɛyɛ ɔfã a ɛyɛ tẽẽ sen biara nso.
Horizon 2. Nsɛm a Wɔka Kyerɛkyere adwumayɛ mu nsakrae-sɛnea batere sesa sikasɛm a ɛwɔ anyinam ahoɔden afiri a wɔde tu mmirika simma biara, dɔnhwerew biara. Eyi ma sika a wɔkora so no yɛ kɛse bere a wɔde mfe pii ayɛ adwuma no.
Horizon 3. Nsɛm a Wɔka Kyerɛgyina hɔ ma nhyehyɛe-level restructuring-kwati ɛka a efi infrastructure a ɛnsɛ sɛ wokyekye da, ne ahobammɔ fi bo a ɛyɛ ahodwiriw a enhia sɛ wogye da. Ɛyɛ den sɛ wobebu mfaso horow yi dodow nanso ebetumi ayɛ nea ɛsom bo sen biara.
Horizon biara yɛ adwuma wɔ bere nhyehyɛe soronko so na ɛde mfaso ba denam akwan horow so. Nea ɛho hia kɛse no, wɔ stack-enhia sɛ wopaw biako sen foforo.
Horizon 1: Hardware Nsakraeɛ (2010-2025) .
93% a Ɛhwee ase no
Sɛ woreka batere sikasɛm ho asɛm a, fi ase de nɔma bi a ɛda so ara yɛ nnipa a wɔanni akyi yiye no nwonwa: batere a wɔde sie no ho ka so tew fi $2,571 wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara mu wɔ afe 2010 mu kɔɔ $192 wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara mu wɔ afe 2024. Ɛno nyɛ mfomso a wɔde kyerɛw. 93% a wɔatew so wɔ mfe 14 mu.
Sɛ yɛbɛka nsɛm a ɛfa ho a, egyee bɛyɛ mfe 40 ansa na owia ahoɔden mfiri a wɔde yɛ adwuma no nyaa ɛka a ɛso tew saa ara. Batere miaa saa kwan no so yɛɛ no mfe du ne fã biako.
Dɛn na ɛmaa saa asehwe yi bae? Tumi abiɛsa a ɛka bom, a emu biara ma afoforo no yɛ kɛse:
Nneɛma a wɔyɛ no kɛse paee bere a anyinam ahoɔden kar ahorow maa nkurɔfo hwehwɛɛ nneɛma a ebi mmae da no. Sɛ CATL, wiase battery yɛfo kɛse, bɔ amanneɛ sɛ ne bo akɔ fam 50% wɔ afe biako mu a, ɛno nyɛ nkɔso a ɛkɔ soro-ɛno yɛ adwumayɛkuw a ɛreyɛ nhyehyɛe foforo titiriw. Mprempren nnwuma koro no ara a ɛsom EV adwumayɛfo no de grid-scale storage projects ma, na ɛtrɛw ɛka a wɔahyɛ da bɔ no mu wɔ dɔla ɔpepepem pii a wɔde yɛ nneɛma no mu.
Nnuruyɛ mu nkɔso danee gua no fii nickel manganese cobalt batere a ne bo yɛ den so kɔɔ lithium iron phosphate a wɔde si ananmu so. LFP gua so kyɛfa kɔɔ soro firii 48% wɔ afe 2021 mu kɔɔ 85% wɔ afe 2024. Na ɛnyɛ sɛ wɔde nneɛma a ne boɔ yɛ mmerɛ bedi dwuma nko ara-LFP batere no kyɛ na ɛtumi gyina charge cycles pii ano, na ɛtew ɛka a wɔbɔ wɔ ne wurayɛ ho nyinaa so kɛseɛ mpo.
Nneɛma a wɔde ma no nyin no maa lithium bo kɔɔ fam fii nea ɛkɔɔ soro sen biara wɔ afe 2022 mu no. Bere a ɛkɔɔ soro 270% a EV ahwehwɛde ho suro ne "adetɔ suban a ntease nnim" na ɛde bae akyi no, lithium carbonate bo yɛɛ nea ɛfata bere a tumi foforo a wɔde tu fagude baa intanɛt so no. Ehu a ɛmaa batere ho ka kɔɔ soro wɔ afe 2022 mu no danee kɛse wɔ afe 2024 mu.
Baabi a Nneɛma Bo Kɔ
Mprempren batere nkwammoaa ankasa bo yɛ $85 kosi $100 wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara mu wɔ gua a ɛdɔɔso-dodow mu, a Chinafo a wɔyɛ nneɛma no bɔɔ $94 wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara mu wɔ afe 2024 awiei 2025-2026-a threshold bere tenten susuw tipping nsɛntitiriw a ɛfa mmofra dodow a wɔfa wɔn sɛ wɔn mma ho.
Nanso nea ɛma Horizon 1 yɛ anigye titiriw ma ɛka a wɔbɛtew so ni: yɛanwie. Ɔman Renewable Energy Laboratory no tebea a ɛkɔ fam no kyerɛ sɛ ɛbɛkɔ fam 47% bio wɔ afe 2030 mu, a battery ho ka betumi akɔ fam akodu $100 wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara mu ama nhyehyɛe a wɔde ahyɛ mu awie. Nsusuwii ahorow a wɔde di dwuma wɔ ɔkwan a ɛyɛ katee so mpo kyerɛ sɛ ɛbɛkɔ so atew akosi afe 2050.
Eyi de nhyehyɛe mu asɛnnennen soronko ba: batere a wode bɛhyɛ mu nnɛ no ne batere a ne bo yɛ mmerɛw kɛse bɛsi akan ɔkyena. Nanso twɛn kyerɛ sɛ wobɛgyae mfe pii a wode asie wɔ adwumayɛ mu afi Horizon 2 mu.
Co-beae Mfaso a ɛwɔ hɔ
Ɔkwan biako a wobɛfa so akyere ɛka a wɔatew so ntɛm ara: fa batere ne owia ahoɔden bom fi mfiase. Sɛnea National Renewable Energy Laboratory akontabuo kyerɛ no, sɛ wɔde photovoltaic systems bɛbom de nneɛma a wɔkora so no bom a, ɛho ka sua 7% sene sɛ wɔde units besi hɔ wɔ ɔkwan soronko so. Shared infrastructure-inverters, grid connections, permitting processes-trɛw ɛka a wɔahyɛ da abɔ wɔ instɔlehyɛn abien no nyinaa mu.
Gemini Solar Plus Storage Project a ɛwɔ Nevada no da eyi adi wɔ nsenia mu: owia ahoɔden megawatt 690 a wɔde abɔ mu ne batere a wɔde sie megawatt 380, a ɛde ahoɔden ma wɔ mfeɛ 25- apam ase. Bere a wɔde yɛɛ adwuma koraa no, ɛbɛyɛɛ owia ahoɔden adwuma a ɛsõ sen biara wɔ United States, na ɛka a wɔbɔ wɔ ade biako biara ho no sua koraa sen nea ɛka a wɔbɔ wɔ afã abien no mu biara nkutoo ho.
Horizon 2: Adwumayɛ mu nsakrae (2020-2030) .
Hardware a ne bo yɛ mmerɛw no yɛ asɛmpa. Batere a ɛsakra sɛnea grids yɛ adwuma titiriw no de bo a ɛkɔ so a ɛboaboa ano afe biara ba.
Peak Shaving Sikasɛm ho nimdeɛ
Mfaso a ɛda adi pefee wɔ adwumayɛ mu: anyinam ahoɔden a ne bo yɛ den a wɔbɛkwati bere a nneɛma a wɔhwehwɛ no kɔ soro no. Utilities fi atetesɛm mu no na wɔde ogya to "peaker plants"-abɔde mu mframa turbines a ɛtra hɔ kwa afe no fã kɛse no ara, na ɛyɛ adwuma wɔ nnɔnhwerew kakraa bi mu bere a ahwehwɛde no kɔ soro nkutoo. Saa afifide yi bo yɛ den sɛ wɔbɛhwɛ so na ɛho ka yɛ den kɛse sɛ wɔde bedi dwuma.
Batere betumi asi afifide a ɛyɛ peaker ananmu bere tenten a ɛkɔ nnɔnhwerew anan, na ɛno na ɛkata ahwehwɛde a ɛkɔ soro no fã kɛse no ara so. Sikasɛm no ani gye batere ho denneennen ma saa dwumadie yi, a ɛka a wɔbɔ no yɛ akansi dedaw na wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ ɛbɛtu mpɔn 45% bio wɔ afe 2030 mu sɛdeɛ Ɔman Ahoɔden a Wɔyɛ Foforo Nhwehwɛmubea no nsusuiɛ kyerɛ no.
Wɔ wɔn a wɔde di dwuma wɔ atrae fam no, akontaabu no yɛ mmerɛw nanso ɛyɛ den saa ara. Wɔ mmeae a bere-de{2}}de di dwuma bo no, batere betumi asesa da biara da dwumadie 40% afiri nnɔnhwereɛ a ne boɔ yɛ den a nnipa pii kɔ so akɔsi boɔ a ne boɔ yɛ den a ɛnyɛ -peak rates. Ɛnam sɛ nsonsonoeɛ a ɛtaa ba boɔ mu yɛ $0.15 wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwereɛ biara mu wɔ peak ne off-peak ntam nti, ofie a ɛdi kilowatt-dɔnhwereɛ 30 da biara no bɛtumi akora bɛyɛ $730 afe biara afiri arbitrage-tɔ a ɛba fam ara kwa mu, de high di dwuma.
NREL nhwehwɛmu bi hunuu sɛ owia ahoɔden-plus-adekorabea no maa ɛka a wɔbɔ wɔ aguadi adan ho wɔ nkuropɔn 17 a wɔhwehwɛɛ mu bɛboro fã so tew, na sika a wɔkora so no duu 24% wɔ gua ahorow bi so. Nhumu titiriw: eyinom nyɛ bere biako-bere mfaso. Wɔboaboa ano ɔsram biara, afe biara.
Grid Stabilization Botaeɛ a Ɛwɔ Hɔ
Beyond simple arbitrage, batteries de services atetesɛm awo ntoatoaso ntumi nhyia wɔ bo biara mu. Bere a wɔde bua ho hia wɔ grid nhyehyɛe mu, na batere yɛ ho biribi wɔ milisekɔn mu bere a afifide a wɔtaa de di dwuma no hia simma pii.
Eyi ma wonya sika pii:
Mpɛn dodow a wɔde yɛ adwuma ho nhyehyɛema anyinam ahoɔden kyinhyia kɔ so yɛ 60 Hertz pɛpɛɛpɛ. Sɛ adwumayɛbea kɛse bi hwehwɛ ahoɔden pii mpofirim a, frequency so tew. Batere betumi de ahoɔden ahyɛ mu ntɛm ara, na ama nhyehyɛe no agyina ansa na afifide a wɔtaa de di dwuma no ahu ɔhaw no mpo. Grid adwumayɛfo tua sika kɛse wɔ saa ɔsom yi ho.
Voltage mmoahwɛ anyinam ahoɔden nhyɛso a ɛkɔ so daa wɔ nhama a wɔde fa anyinam ahoɔden so no so. Bere a ahoɔden a wɔde yɛ foforo a ɛkɔ mu no kɔ soro no, ahoɔden a ɛsakrasakra no taa ba. Batere ma nsakrae ahorow yi yɛ mmerɛw, na esiw brownouts a ɛsɛe nnwinnade na ɛma adetɔfo abam bu no ano.
Black start tumima kwan ma grid no afã horow san fi ase bere a wɔatwa a enni abɔnten so anyinam ahoɔden fibea ahorow. Wɔ afe 2021 Texas anyinam ahoɔden mu no, batere a wɔde sii hɔ no maa amansin a ɛho hia no yɛɛ adwuma, na ɛdaa tumi bi a atetesɛm awo ntoatoaso nni adi adi.
Ɔsom biara ma wonya sika. Fa bom, na batere bɛyɛ agyapade a mfaso wɔ so sen sɛ ɛbɛyɛ mmeae a wɔbɔ ka. California Independent System Operator no afe 2024 data kyerɛ sɛ co-located batteries de ahoɔden pii ma na wonya mfasoɔ pii firi ahoɔden arbitrage mu sene standalone battery, sɛ wɔkyekyɛ mu a, ɛma mfasoɔ kɛseɛ wɔ megawatt biara a ɛwɔ tumi mu.
Ankasa-Wiase Adwumayɛ ho Nsɛm
Mfaso a enni adwene mu no ho nhia pii sen nea efi mu ba a wɔakyerɛw ho asɛm. Texas de nhwɛsoɔ a emu da hɔ paa ma: ahoɔden a wɔkora so a wɔde dii dwuma no maa adetɔfoɔ sieeɛ dɔla ɔpepem 750 wɔ afe 2024 ahohuru berɛ nko ara mu. Ɛno nyɛ sika a wɔahyɛ ho nkɔm-ɛno ne sika ankasa a ɛtraa ratepayers kotoku mu.
Sɛn? Ɛdenam hia a ehia sɛ wɔma afifide a ne bo yɛ den a ɛyɛ peaker no yɛ adwuma bere a awiabere a wɔhwehwɛ nneɛma pii no so. Sɛ́ anka wɔbɛhyew abɔde mu mframa wɔ bo a ɛkorɔn so no, wɔn a wɔyɛ anyinam ahoɔden mfiri no twee owia ahoɔden a wɔde asie no fii batere a wɔde abɔ mu bere a wɔreyɛ nneɛma boro so awiabere no mu. Nsonsonoe a ɛda nneɛma bo mu-da awiabere owia ahoɔden a ɛdɔɔso ne awiabere ahwehwɛde a ɛsen biara ntam-maa sika a wɔkora so ntɛm ara wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara a wɔasesa no ho.
Scale ho hia wɔ ha. Texas de batere a ɛboro gigawatt 8 kakra kaa ho wɔ afe 2024. California de gigawatt 12.5 sii hɔ. Sɛ wɔka bom a, saa aman mmienu yi yɛ U.S. batere foforɔ a wɔde aka ho no mu 82%, na wɔn a wɔde di dwuma no ne sika a adetɔfoɔ sie no wɔ abusuabɔ tẽẽ.
Nhwɛso no kura mu wɔ nsenia nketewa mu. Hawaii Kauai supɔw no nya ne anyinam ahoɔden 60% fi nneɛma a wɔyɛ no foforo mu, a batere a wɔde di dwuma-scale a ɛma supɔw no ahoɔden fã wɔ tebea horow bi mu na ɛboa. Sikasɛm mu mfaso: kwati a wɔbɛkwati pɛtro a efi amannɔne a kan no na ɛma supɔw no bɔ dɔla 4.50 wɔ galɔn biara mu, a ɛboro asase kɛse so bo so koraa.
Horizon 3: Nhyehyɛe mu Nsakrae (2025-2050) .
Horizon a ɛtɔ so mmiɛnsa no fa ɛka a worenkɔ da-infrastructure a wonsi da, petrol a worenhye da, volatility a worennye da.
Nneɛma a Wɔde Yɛ Adwuma Ho Ka a Wɔkwati
Sɛ wosisi anyinam ahoɔden mfiri foforo a, ne bo yɛ den. Nhama a wɔde fa nsu mu a wɔde bɛka wɔn ho no bo yɛ den. Sɛ wɔma kwan ma abien no nyinaa gye mfe pii ne dɔla ɔpepepem pii. Batere a wɔde ahyɛ mmeae a wɔde nneɛma gu-a ɛbɛn nkuropɔn, mfiridwuma mmeae, data mmeae-betumi atwe sika a wɔde asie yi akɔ akyiri anaasɛ wɔayi afi hɔ koraa.
United Kingdom bu akontaa sɛ batere a wɔde sie a ɛboa ma wɔde nneɛma a wɔyɛ no foforo bom no betumi akora ahoɔden nhyehyɛe no so akodu dɔla ɔpepepem 48 wɔ afe 2050 mu, na awiei koraa no, ɛbɛtew ahoɔden a wɔde di dwuma no ho ka so. Saa akontaabu no gyina hɔ ma sika a wɔkwati wɔ anyinam ahoɔden mfiri, transmission upgrades, ne system reinforcements a ɛho renhia bere a wɔde nneɛma a ɛdɔɔso asie no.
Susuw ɔkwan foforo a wobetumi afa so no ho: anyinam ahoɔden a wɔhwehwɛ no nkɔanim a wobedi ho dwuma a wonkora so no hwehwɛ sɛ wosi dan kɛse a wotumi yɛ no foforo (wɔma wonya nneɛma pii koraa sen nea ehia wɔ tebea pa mu de kata tebea horow a enye so) anaasɛ wɔbɛkɔ so akura pɛtro a efi abo mu pii mu. Nneɛma abien no nyinaa bo yɛ den sen sɛ wɔbɛkyekyere batere a ɛdɔɔso.
California nsusuwii ahorow no kyerɛ sɛnea ɛyɛ kɛse: sɛ wobedu ɔman no botae a ɛne sɛ anyinam ahoɔden a ɛho tew 100% wɔ afe 2045 mu no ho a, ɛhwehwɛ sɛ wɔde anyinam ahoɔden sie bɛyɛ gigawatt 58. Nanso sɛ wobɛbɔ mmɔden sɛ wobɛbɔ mmɔden sɛ wode botae koro no ara a enni nneɛma a wɔkora so a, ɛbɛhwehwɛ sɛ wode awo ntoatoaso a wotumi yɛ foforo kɛse-ne nhama a wɔde fa so nyinaa ka ho na ama saa tumi no akɔ baabiara. Nhyehyɛe no ho ka a wɔde sie no sua koraa sen nea enni hɔ.
Petrol Bo Ho Ahobammɔ
Ahoɔden a wɔyɛ no foforo a wɔde ka nneɛma a wɔkora so ho no ma ahobammɔ ba wɔ pɛtro a efi abo mu bo a ɛsakrasakra ho. Abɔdeɛ mu gas bo kɔɔ soro mmɔho mmienu wɔ afe 2021-2022 mu, na ɛmaa anyinam ahoɔden ho ka kɔɔ soro wɔ gua a egyina gas a wɔyɛ so. Batere a wɔde owia anaa mframa mu anyinam ahoɔden ahyɛ mu no kwatii bo a ɛkɔ soro yi koraa.
Saa ahobammɔ yi yɛ kɛse bere a bere kɔ so no. Owia ahoɔden-plus-adekorabea a ɛreyɛ adwuma nnɛ de anyinam ahoɔden bɛma wɔ ɛka a wonim mu mfeɛ 25-30. Fossil awo ntoatoaso a ɛne wɔn ho wɔn ho di akan no benya pɛtro bo a ɛbɛsakra biara wɔ saa bere no mu-ebetumi aba sɛ ne bo bɛkɔ soro kɛse du du pii.
Botae a ɛwɔ bo a ɛyɛ nokware so no kɔ soro bere a gua so nsakrae no. Wɔ afe 2022 ahoɔden ho ahokyere mu no, nnwumakuo a ɛwɔ ahoɔden a wɔtumi yɛ foforɔ-plus-akoraeɛ tumi kɛseɛ no kuraa aguadidan boɔ a ɛyɛ den mu sene deɛ wɔde wɔn ho to abɔdeɛ mu gas so. Adetɔfo hyɛɛ no nsow. Nsonsonoe a ɛda ɛka a wɔbɔ-a ɛda boɔ a ɛyɛ den a wɔbɔ wɔ nneɛma a wɔyɛ no foforɔ ne boɔ a ɛyɛ den ntam-betumi aboro ɛka kɛseɛ a wɔbɔ wɔ nneɛma a wɔkora soɔ nhyehyɛeɛ no nyinaa wɔ ne nkwa nna mu.
Nneɛma a Wɔyɛ no Foforo a Wɔde Di Dwuma Ntɛmntɛm
Ɛha na feedback loop a ɛfata sɛ yɛte ase: battery ma ahoɔden a wɔyɛ no foforo som bo kɛse, a ɛhyɛ ahoɔden a wɔyɛ no foforo pii a wɔde bedi dwuma ho nkuran, a ɛma battery ho ka kɔ fam kɛse denam manufacturing scale so.
Mprempren wɔn a wɔyɛ mframa ne owia ahoɔden no taa de batere a wɔde sie ka adwuma no ho nyansahyɛ ahorow ho efisɛ ɛma adwuma no nyinaa yɛ nea ɛyɛ anigye kɛse wɔ sikasɛm mu. Storage dane awo ntoatoaso a ɛba bere ne bere mu no ma ɛbɛyɛ anyinam ahoɔden a wotumi de kɔma-anyinam ahoɔden a wobetumi de ama bere a ɛho hia pɛpɛɛpɛ. Grid adwumayɛfo tua bo a ɛkorɔn wɔ dispatchability ho.
Eyi de suban pa kyinhyia ba. Batere pii a wɔde di dwuma no ma wonya nkɔso wɔ nneɛma a wɔyɛ mu, na ɛtew ɛka so kɛse. Ɛka a ɛba fam no ma wotumi de nneɛma pii di dwuma. Guadiɛ no nyini kɛseɛ-batere a wɔde si hɔ no kɔɔ soro 33% wɔ afe 2024 mu sene afe 2023, a nsusuiɛ kyerɛ sɛ nkɔsoɔ a ɛte saa ara bɛba akosi afe 2030.
Amanaman Ntam Ahoɔden a Wɔyɛ Foforo Dwumadibea no hwɛ kwan sɛ batere a wɔde sie wɔ nneɛma a egyina hɔ pintinn mu no bɛkɔ soro afi gigawatt 2 wɔ wiase nyinaa wɔ afe 2017 mu akodu bɛyɛ gigawatt 175 wɔ afe 2030. Ɛno yɛ nkɔanim mpɛn 87 wɔ mfe 13 mu, na ɛne nsu mu ahoɔden a wɔde sie a egyee mfe du du pii ansa na ɛredu gigawatt 235 no di akan.
Anohyeto ne Nsɛnnennen no
Nokwaredi hwehwɛ sɛ wugye tom wɔ baabi a batere ntew ɛka so yiye-anyɛ yiye koraa no, ennya nyɛɛ saa.
Bere Mu Nneɛma a Wɔkora So Ɔhaw no
Batere di yiye wɔ dɔnhwerew biara ne da biara da a wɔde sie mu. Wɔpere wɔn ho wɔ mmere a ɛne ne ho nhyia ho. Wɔ California ne wim tebea a ɛtete saa mu no, owia ahoɔden a wɔde yɛ adwuma no dɔɔso sen biara wɔ awɔw bere mu nanso nea wɔhwehwɛ no dɔɔso sen biara wɔ awɔw bere mu ɔhyew mu. Europa Atifi fam hyia ɔhaw a ɛne eyi bɔ abira: awɔw bere mu owia pii nanso awɔw bere mu ahiade a ɛho hia kɛse.
Sɛ wɔde anyinam ahoɔden sie fi July na wɔde bedi dwuma wɔ January mu a, ɛhwehwɛ sɛ wɔde anyinam ahoɔden kɛse di dwuma na wogye tom sɛ wɔhwere ahoɔden kɛse. Mprempren lithium-ion batere no ntumi sikasɛm mu mfaso mma saa dwumadie yi. Grid-scale nhyehyeɛ taa de anyinam ahoɔden nnɔnhwereɛ 2-4 sie, ɛtɔ da bi a ɛtrɛ kɔ nnɔnhwereɛ 8-10. Asram pii a wɔde sie no bɛhwehwɛ mfiridwuma ahorow-hydrogen, ɔhyew a wɔde sie, anaa ano aduru afoforo a ɛreba.
MIT nhwehwɛmufoɔ bu akontaa sɛ sɛ wɔde mframa ne owia ahoɔden di U.S. anyinam ahoɔden ahiadeɛ 80% ho dwuma a, ɛbɛhia sɛ wɔyɛ ɔman no nyinaa mu ahoɔden a ɛkɔ soro-a ɛkari pɛ wɔ awoɔ ntoatoasoɔ mu wɔ akwansin ɔhaha pii mu, anaasɛ wɔde nnɔnhwereɛ 12 sie ama nhyehyɛeɛ no nyinaa. Sɛ yɛhwɛ mprempren bo a, na saa nneɛma a wɔkora so no bɛbɔ ka bɛboro dɔla ɔpepepem 2.5.
Wei nnyɛ batere akoraeɛ a ɛnyɛ adwuma-ɛkyerɛkyerɛ ne dwumadie a ɛyɛ papa mu kɛkɛ. Batere tew ɛka so kɛse wɔ adesoa a wɔde sesa da biara da ne grid a wɔde di dwuma ho. Ɛsɛ sɛ mfiridwuma afoforo di nneɛma a wɔkora so wɔ bere bi mu ho dwuma.
Raw Material Anohyeto ahorow
Batere ho ka gyina nneɛma bo a wɔbɔ wɔ lithium, cobalt, nickel, ne nneɛma afoforo ho so. Nkɔnsɔnkɔnsɔn a wɔde nneɛma yi ma no hyia anohyeto ankasa.
China abɔnten so ahotosoɔ a ɛwɔ lithium ahodeɛ so no duu bɛboro 70% wɔ afe 2021. Nnwuma foforɔ a wɔde tu fagudeɛ gye mfeɛ 5-7 ansa na wɔatumi ayɛ, berɛ a EV ne grid storage ahwehwɛdeɛ no kɔ soro ntɛmntɛm sene sɛ wɔde ma foforɔ ba intanɛt so. Nneɛma bo a ɛsakrasakra bɛyɛ nea wontumi nkwati bere a nneɛma a wɔde ma no ntumi nyɛ ade ntɛm ara wɔ nneɛma a wɔhwehwɛ a ɛkɔ soro ho no.
Nneɛma a wɔsan de di dwuma no ma wonya ano aduru a ɛyɛ fã bi. Northvolt bɔɔ amanneɛ sɛ wɔde nickel, manganese, ne cobalt a wɔasan de adi dwuma 100% ayɛ batere wɔ afe 2021. Nanso mprempren nneɛma a wɔsan de di dwuma no dodow da so ara sua-ennu 20% wɔ China, na ɛba fam koraa sen dodow a ɛwɔ United States ne Japan. Scaling recycling ma ɛne deployment nkɔso hyia no hwehwɛ mfe pii a wɔde yɛ infrastructure nkɔso.
Nneɛma a wɔde sie no nsɛe batere a wɔkora so, nanso ɛma ɛka a wontumi nsi pi. Lithium bo kɔɔ soro 270% wɔ afe 2021-2022 mu, ɛdanee 50% wɔ afe 2024 mu, na sɛ EV a wɔgye tom no kɔ soro ntɛmntɛm sene ntrɛmu a wɔde tu fagudeɛ mu a, ɛbɛtumi akɔ soro bio. Aguadi ho kyinhyia biara nya batere sikasɛm so nkɛntɛnso.
Nkwa nna ne Ka a wɔbɔ wɔ nea wɔde besi ananmu
Mfiridwuma a wɔyɛ anyinam ahoɔden tumi yɛ adwuma mfe du du pii. Batere sɛe wɔ mfeɛ 10-15 akyi a wɔde sakre tu, na ɛhia sɛ wɔsesa. Eyi de ɛka a ahintaw ba a ɛma nnipa pii a wɔde si hɔ nea edi kan no ho dwiriw wɔn.
Battery a wɔde ahyɛ mu wɔ afe 2025 mu no behia sɛ wɔsesa bɛyɛ afe 2035-2040. Ɛbɛyɛ sɛ ɛka a wɔbɔ no so bɛtew kɛse saa bere no-nanso sɛnea ɛbɛkɔ fam ankasa no da so ara yɛ nea wontumi nsi pi. Nsusuwii a ɛyɛ anidaso kyerɛ sɛ ɛka foforo a wɔbɔ no so tew 50-60%. Nsɛm tebea horow a wɔde kata nneɛma so kyerɛ sɛ nkɔso kakraa bi na ɛba. Nsonsonoe no ka nkwa nna nyinaa mu ka nyinaa kɛse.
Saa adwenem naayɛ yi ma sikasɛm mu yɛ den. Sikakorabea ahorow a wɔbɔ bosea tia nnwuma a wɔyɛ no foforo no hia sika a wobetumi ahyɛ ho nkɔm wɔ mfe 20-30 mu. Battery a wɔsesa no de ɛka a ɛsakra a ɛyɛ den sɛ wɔbɛyɛ ho mfonini pɛpɛɛpɛ ba. Nnwuma binom di eyi ho dwuma denam sika a wɔde besi ananmu a wɔatu wɔn ho ama a wɔbɛhyehyɛ so, na wɔ ɔkwan a etu mpɔn so no, ɛma ɛka a wɔbɔ ansa na wɔadi kan no akɔ soro 20-40%.
Nnuruyɛ a ɛreba no hyɛ bɔ sɛ ɛbɛtra ase akyɛ-lithium iron phosphate batere ahorow no da kyinhyia nkwa nna a eye sen nickel manganese cobalt ahorow a atwam no. Nanso "eye" da so ara kyerɛ sɛ awiei koraa no wɔbɛsesa, wɔakyɛ kɛkɛ fi afe 10 kosi afe 15.
Hena na Onya Batere a Wɔde Sie So Mfaso Kɛse?
Ka a wɔtew so no nkyekyɛ pɛpɛɛpɛ. Wɔn a wɔde di dwuma ne asasesin binom nya so mfaso kɛse sen afoforo koraa.
Asase Ho Nneɛma a Ɛyɛ Dwo
Mpɔtam a nneɛma a wɔde yɛ foforo pii kɔ mu no hu mfaso kɛse. California ne Texas di U.S. batere a wɔde di dwuma no anim efisɛ wɔayɛ owia ne mframa ahoɔden kɛse dedaw. Batere di ɔhaw a ɛfa bere ne bere mu a saa nneɛma a wɔyɛ no foforo no de ba no ho dwuma, na ɛma wotumi nya ahoɔden a wɔyɛ no foforo ɔha biara mu nkyem a ɛkɔ soro mpo.
Nsupɔw ne grids a atew ne ho nya mfaso a ɛnsɛ. Hawaii tua bo a ɛkorɔn ma pɛtro a efi abo mu a wɔde fi amannɔne ba, na ɛma kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara a wɔde sie ahoɔden a wɔyɛ no foforo no som bo. Mpɔtam a ɛwɔ akyirikyiri hyia sikasɛm a ɛte saa ara-ɔkwan biara a wɔbɛfa so ayɛ diesel awo ntoatoaso no sie sika kɛse.
Mmeae a nneɛma bo yɛ den kɛse no hu bere a wɔde tua ka ntɛmntɛm. Baabi a bere-de{2}}de di dwuma no yɛ soronko $0.20-0.30 wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara mu wɔ peak ne off-peak ntam (California, atifi fam apuei aman), atrae batere nhyehyɛe betumi anya akatua wɔ mfe 5-7 mu denam arbitrage nkutoo so.
Nea ɛne eyi bɔ abira no, mpɔtam a anyinam ahoɔden bo yɛ pɛpɛɛpɛ na nsu anaa nuklea nnyinaso pii wɔ hɔ no hu mfaso kakraa bi. Arbitrage hokwan no nni hɔ. Grid dwumadie no nnya sika kakraa bi berɛ a grid no reyɛ adwuma yie dedaw. Batere a wɔde di dwuma wɔ gua ahorow yi so no di akyi kɛse.
Dwumadie-Sikasɛm Pɔtee
Grid-scale installations nya mfasoɔ firi sikasɛm mu scale a residential systems ntumi nhyia. 100-megawatt utility project betumi anya $150 wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara a wɔde ahyɛ mu no ho ka bere a 13.5-kilowatt-hour ofie nhyehyɛe no bo yɛ $200-400 kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara mpo sɛ aban towtua a wɔde ma a.
Nanso atrae nhyehyɛe ahorow kyere nneɛma a ɛsom bo a wɔde di dwuma no ntumi: anyinam ahoɔden a wɔde bɛboa bere a wɔagyae adwuma no, arbitrage across retail rates mmom sen wholesale rates, ne ahwehwɛde ho ka a ebetumi ama anyinam ahoɔden ho ka mmɔho abien wɔ afie akɛse ho no afi hɔ. Atenaeɛ nhyehyɛeɛ betumi atew ahoɔden ho ka so 30-80% wɔ tebea a ɛyɛ papa mu-sanba a eye sen utility-scale arbitrage.
Wɔn a wɔde di dwuma wɔ aguadi ne mfiridwuma mu no di mfinimfini. Nneɛma a wɔde si hɔ a ne kɛse yɛ mfinimfini (500 kilowatt-dɔnhwerew kosi megawatt 2-dɔnhwerew) bo yɛ den wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara mu sen utility-scale nanso esua sen atrae. Sika a wobenya hokwan ahorow no bi ne ahwehwɛde ho ka a wɔatew so, bere-de-de -de arbitrage di dwuma, ne nkɔanim, nnwuma a ɛboa gua a wɔabue denam mmara mu nsakrae so.
Nhumu titiriw: batere sikasɛm yɛ beae pɔtee-de pɔtee ne dwumadie- pɔtee. Blanket nsɛm a ɛfa sɛ ebia battery "tew ɛka so" miss the nuance. Mmuae a ɛteɛ ne sɛ: yiw, nanso egyina baabi a wowɔ, sɛnea wode bedi dwuma, ne akwan foforo a wode retoto ho so.
Policy Multiplier Nsunsuanso no
Aban nneɛma a wɔde kanyan nkurɔfo ma bere nhyehyɛe a wɔde tew ɛka so no yɛ ntɛmntɛm kɛse.
Tow a Wɔde Tow Sika a Wɔde Toto Ho
Inflation Reduction Act no trɛw federal investment tow a wɔde ma no mu kɔɔ ahoɔden a wɔkora so a egyina hɔ ma ne 30% wɔ nhyehyɛe no ho ka nyinaa mu. Kane no, na batere fata bere a ɛne owia ahoɔden bom nkutoo. Saa nsakrae yi maa ɛka a etu mpɔn no so tew ntɛm ara bɛyɛ nkyem abiɛsa mu biako-ma nnwuma a ɛfata.
Wɔ utility-scale adwuma a ɛho ka yɛ $150 kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara ho no, towtua a wɔde ma no brɛ ɛka so tew yiye kɔ $105 kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara. Saa nhyehyɛe biako pɛ a wɔsakrae no maa nnwuma mpempem pii yɛɛ yiye wɔ sikasɛm mu a na entumi nyɛ yiye asram bi a atwam no.
Ɔman nhyehyɛe ahorow boaboa ano wɔ aban nkuranhyɛ ahorow so. California Self-Generation Incentive Program no de $200 ma kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara ma batere a wɔde ahyɛ mu. Sɛ wɔde federal credits ka ho a, nkannyan nyinaa betumi atua 50% wɔ installation ho ka wɔ tebea horow bi mu.
Eyinom nyɛ mmoa wɔ atetesɛm ntease mu-ɛyɛ akwan a wɔfa so yɛ ntɛmntɛm. Battery bɛyɛ nea ɛho ka-yɛ nea ɛho ka yɛ den awiei koraa no ɛnam hardware ka a ɛkɔ fam nkutoo so. Nkannyan mia saa bere nhyehyɛe no fi "wɔ mfe 5-10 mu" kosi "mprempren." Eyi ho hia efisɛ nneɛma a wɔde yɛ adwuma a wɔasisi nnɛ no ma wɔde mfe du du pii a wɔde hyew pɛtro a efi abo mu no fi hɔ.
Guadi Nhyehyɛe mu Nsakrae
Ɛnyɛ nea wontumi nhu nanso ɛho hia saa ara: nsakrae a ɛba wɔ mmara mu a ɛde gua ahorow ba ma grid nnwuma. Texas ahoɔden gua a wɔayi mmara so no ma batere tumi tɔn frequency regulation, voltage support, ne black start tumi wɔ gua so bo so. California grid dwumadie no de anohyetoɔ a ɛyɛ nnam a ɛma ahodeɛ a wɔde afrafra tumi di dwumadie tumi ho nkitaho wɔ berɛ ankasa-mu, na ɛmaa sika a wɔnya no yɛɛ yie wɔ nnwuma ahodoɔ mu.
Saa gua so akwan yi ma wonya sika a na enni hɔ mfe du a atwam ni. Battery a wonya sika fi ahoɔden arbitrage nkutoo mu no betumi anya 8% mfaso. Fa frequency regulation payments ka ho na sanba no mmɔho abien. Fa tumi a wotua ne ahwehwɛde mmuae ka ho, na mfaso betumi adu 15-20%.
Nhyehyɛeɛ multiplier effect no trɛw kɔ akyiri sen nkannyan tẽẽ. Tumi krataa a wɔma ɛyɛ mmerɛw no ma ɛka a wɔbɔ no brɛoo no so tew. Nsakrae a wɔyɛ wɔ nkitahodi ntonto mu no brɛ akyɛde so. Ogya ahobanbɔ gyinapɛn siw mmirikatu-kɔ-ase-ase wɔ su pa ho kwan. Nhyehyɛe biara a wɔde di dwuma no ma wogye tom ntɛmntɛm anaasɛ ɛhwɛ hu sɛ ɛkɔ so daa.
Nea Data no Ka Fa 2025-2030 Ho
Daakye ɛka a wɔbɛka ho asɛm no hwehwɛ sɛ wontumi nsi pi, nanso nkɔmhyɛ ahorow pii a ɛde ne ho no hyia wɔ akwan a ɛte saa ara so.
Ɛbɛn-Mmere mu Ka a Wɔbɔ ho Nsusuwii
National Renewable Energy Laboratory no tebea a ɛyɛ mmerɛw no hyɛ nkɔm sɛ wɔbɛtew sika kɛse a wɔsɛe no so 37% ama utility-scale battery systems wɔ afe 2022 ne 2035 ntam, na sɛ wɔkyekyem pɛpɛɛpɛ a, afe biara ɛbɛkɔ fam 2.9%. Nsɛm a ɛkɔ anim no kyerɛ sɛ wɔatew so 52%, sɛ wɔkyekyem pɛpɛɛpɛ a, ɛyɛ 4% afe biara.
BloombergNEF kyerɛ sɛ battery pack bo bɛduru $100 wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara mu wɔ afe 2025 mu ama lithium iron phosphate ne 2027 ama nickel manganese cobalt. Goldman Sachs hyɛ nkɔm sɛ battery pack boɔ so bɛtew 40% wɔ afe 2023-2024 nyinaa mu, na ɛkɔ so tew a ɛbɛduru 50% a ɛbɛtete ne nyinaa so wɔ afe 2025-2026 mu.
Amanaman Ntam Ahoɔden a Wɔyɛ Foforo Dwumadibea no bu akontaa sɛ ɛka a wɔbɔ nyinaa betumi akɔ fam 50-60% wɔ afe 2030 mu, na battery cell ho ka bɛkɔ fam kɛse mpo. Wɔn nhwehwɛmu no kyerɛ sɛ lithium-ion batere a wɔde yɛ adwuma a egyina hɔ pintinn no betumi adu fam sen $200 wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara mu ama nhyehyɛe a wɔde ahyɛ mu awie.
Saa nsusuiɛ yi a wɔbɛhyia: hwɛ kwan sɛ utility-scale installed no bɛbɔ ka bɛyɛ $100-150 wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwereɛ biara mu wɔ afe 2030 mu wɔ tebea a ɛyɛ mmerɛ mu, a ɛbɛtumi adu $80-100 wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwereɛ biara mu wɔ tebea a ɛyɛ anidasoɔ mu. Atenaeɛ nhyehyɛeɛ bɛdi akyi 30-50% a ɛkorɔn ɛnam nhyehyɛɛ a ɛyɛ den ne nketewa nti.
Deployment Nkɔso Ho Nsusuwii
United States de batere a wɔde sie bɛboro gigawatt 12 dii dwuma wɔ afe 2024 mu, ɛyɛ nkɔanim 33% wɔ afe 2023. Wood Mackenzie hyɛ nkɔm sɛ wɔbɛhyehyɛ gigawatt 15 wɔ afe 2025 mu, na atenaeɛ fã no betumi adu gigawatt 12 wɔ afe 2030 mu.
California hia anyinam ahoɔden a wɔde sie gigawatt 58 na ama wɔatumi adi ne botae ahorow a ɛfa ahoɔden a ɛho tew ho wɔ afe 2045 mu no ho. Texas batere ahoɔden kɔɔ soro mmɔho abien fi afe 2023 kosi afe 2024, na wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ ɛbɛkɔ soro saa ara wɔ mfe du no mu. Sɛ wɔka aman yi bom a, ɛma ɔman no de wɔn kɔ adwuma mu, ɛwom sɛ asasesin ahorow a egu ahorow kɔ soro bere a sikasɛm tu mpɔn no.
Wɔ wiase nyinaa no, battery a wɔkora so no betumi akɔ soro akodu gigawatt 175 wɔ afe 2030 mu sɛdeɛ Amanaman Ntam Ahoɔden a Wɔyɛ Foforo Dwumadibea no nsusuiɛ kyerɛ no, ɛboro gigawatt 2 wɔ afe 2017. Eyi gyina hɔ ma bɛyɛ 15% afe afe nkɔsoɔ dodoɔ-a ɛne nsakraeɛ mfiridwuma hyia wɔ wɔn a wɔgye tom no mu.
Kɔkɔbɔ biako: saa nsusuwii ahorow yi fa no sɛ nhyehyɛe biara a wɔbɛdannan no kɛse anaasɛ wɔrensɛe nneɛma a wɔde ma no. Nsakrae a wɔbɛyɛ wɔ towtua a wɔde kanyan nkurɔfo, tow foforo a wɔbɔ, anaa nneɛma a ɛho yɛ na mu no betumi ama wɔagye atom no brɛoo. Nanso tebea horow a enni anidaso mpo da nkɔso kɛse adi, wɔ dodow a ɛkɔ fam ara kwa.
Gyinaesi a Wobesi: Bere a Ntease wɔ Batere Ho wɔ Sikasɛm Mu
Asɛmmisa a ɛfa sika a wɔde bɛto mu biara ho: so eyi tua ne ho ka?
Atenaeɛ Atenaeɛ Nkontabuo Nhyehyɛeɛ
Fi ase fa wo anyinam ahoɔden ho ka. Sɛ wotua bɛboro $0.15 wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara mu, titiriw bere-de{4}}de di dwuma ho ka a, ɛda adi sɛ batere bɛtew ɛka so. Sɛ wotua nnu $0.10 kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara a wowɔ flat rates a, tua a wobɛtua no bɛyɛ den a wunsusuw backup power bo ho.
Fa factor wɔ nneɛma a ɛkanyan nkurɔfo mu. Federal sikasɛm towtua a wɔde ma no tua ɛka a wɔbɔ wɔ owia ahoɔden-plus-adekorabea ho 30%. Ɔman no sika a wɔsan de ma no gu ahorow kɛse-California de mmoa kɛse ma, bere a aman afoforo de mmoa kakraa bi ma. Ka a wɔbɔ wɔ nkannyan akyi no na ɛkyerɛ bere ankasa a wɔde tua ka.
Susuw wo owia tebea no ho. Sɛ wowɔ solar panels a net metering ka ho dedaw a, battery a wode bɛka ho no yɛ den sɛ wobɛbu no bem wɔ sikasɛm nkutoo so-woreyɛ sika dedaw wɔ awo ntoatoaso a ɛboro so. Sɛ wunni owia ahoɔden, anaasɛ sɛ net metering rates nyɛ papa a, batere a wɔde owia ahoɔden foforo abɔ mu no yɛ nea ntease wom kɛse.
Fa backup tumi no bo ma sɛnea ɛfata. Sɛ grid ahotoso nyɛ papa na adwuma a ɛtwa mu no hwere wo sika (ofie adwumayɛbea, aduruyɛ nnwinnade, nnuan a asɛe) a, batere ma insurance bo a ɛboro arbitrage kronkron so. Eyi ma sikasɛm mu nhwɛso yɛ nea ɛfa obi ankasa ho nanso ɛnnyi mfaso a ɛwɔ so no mfi hɔ.
Tebea a ɛtaa ba: $15,000 nhyehyɛe ho ka, $4,500 wɔ tow a wɔatew so, $10,500 a wɔbɔ ankasa. Sɛ wo sie $100/ɔsram denam arbitrage so na wokwati demand charges a, payback ba wɔ mfe 8.75 mu. Battery nkwa nna a ɛyɛ mfe 12-15 ma mfe 3-6 mfaso kronkron wɔ payback akyi.
Mfaso ne Aguadi Ho Nkontaabu
Nneɛma akɛse a wɔde si hɔ no hyia sikasɛm ahorow. Kapital ka so tew kɔ $100-200 wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara mu. Sika a wonya pii (ahoɔden, tumi, nnwuma a ɛboa) ma mfaso a wonya fi mu no tu mpɔn. Nanso sikasɛm mu nsɛnnennen kɔ soro na ɛka a wɔbɔ wɔ nneɛma a wɔde besi ananmu ho hia kɛse.
Grid-scale nnwuma taa de wɔn ani si 12-15% mu mfasoɔ dodoɔ so. Wɔ gua ahorow a eye (California, Texas) so no, wobetumi de mprempren mfiridwuma ne nneɛma bo ayɛ saa aboboano yi. Wɔ gua ahorow a ɛnyɛ papa so no, mfaso a wonya no so tew gye sɛ mmara kwan so mmoa no tu mpɔn anaasɛ ɛka so tew kɛse.
Co-beaeɛ a ɛne awoɔ ntoatoasoɔ a wɔtumi yɛ foforɔ no ma adwuma no sikasɛm tu mpɔn 7% denam nnwuma ho ka a wɔkyɛ so. Wei kyerɛkyerɛ nea enti a utility foforo dodow no ara-scale storage pairs ne owia anaa mframa-adwuma a wɔaka abom no pencils out yiye sen component biara nkutoo.
Ade titiriw biako a ɛsɛ sɛ wususuw ho: batere som bo kɛse bere a nneɛma a wɔde yɛ foforo a ɛkɔ mu no kɔ soro no. Wɔn a wodi kan gye tom no hyia sika a wobenya hokwan kakraa bi kɛse. Akyiri yi wɔn a wɔfa no nya mfaso fi grid services gua a wɔatu mpɔn a wɔayɛ sɛ wɔde bedi ɔha biara mu nkyem a ɛkɔ soro a wotumi yɛ foforo ho dwuma no mu. Bere a eye sen biara no hwehwɛ sɛ wɔkari pɛ "first-mover advantage" ne "twɛn sikasɛm a eye."
Nsɛm a Wɔtaa Bisa
Batere betumi atew anyinam ahoɔden ho ka so ahe?
Batere nhyehyɛe a ɛwɔ atrae betumi atew anyinam ahoɔden ho ka so 30-80% wɔ tebea horow a eye sen biara mu, ɛwom sɛ 30-40% yɛ nea ɛtaa ba de. Sikakorabea ankasa gyina wo utility rate nhyehyɛe-bere-de di dwuma rates a ɛwɔ peak/off-peak spreads a ɛho hia no so titiriw na ɛma arbitrage hokwan a ɛsen biara. Asasesin a ɛwɔ hɔ nso ho hia: California, Texas, ne atifi fam apuei aman kyerɛ mfaso a eye sen biara esiane anyinam ahoɔden ho ka a ɛkɔ soro ne ɛka nhyehyɛe pa nti.
So batere ho ka da so ara rekɔ fam wɔ afe 2025 mu?
Aane. Nsusuwii ahorow pii hyia wɔ ɛka a ɛbɛkɔ so atew akosi afe 2030 ne nea ɛbɛba akyiri yi ho. National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s moderate scenario forecasts 37% reductions from 2022 to 2035. Wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ battery pack bo titire bɛduru $100 wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwereɛ biara mu wɔ afe 2025-2026 mu, a nhyehyɛeɛ a wɔde ahyɛ mu no ho ka bɛkɔ so akɔ fam berɛ a nneɛma a wɔyɛ no kɔ soro na nneɛma a wɔde ma no reyɛ kɛseɛ.
Dɛn na ɛba bere a ehia sɛ wɔsesa batere no?
Lithium-ion batere dodow no ara sɛe wɔ mfe 10{3}}15 akyi a wɔde sakre tu daa na ɛhia sɛ wɔsesa. Wɔsusu sɛ ɛka a wɔbɔ wɔ nneɛma a wɔde besi ananmu no bɛba fam kɛseɛ ɛnam mfiridwuma mu nkɔsoɔ a ɛkɔ so nti-ɛbɛtumi ayɛ 50-60% wɔ mprempren boɔ no ase. Aguadidan ahorow pii de sika a wɔde besi ananmu no hyɛ wɔn sikasɛm nhyehyɛe mu, na ne titiriw no wodi kan tua sika a wɔde besi ananmu daakye wɔ nnɛyi bo so, a ɛsɛ sɛ ɛkata ɔkyena nneɛma a wɔde besi ananmu a ne bo yɛ mmerɛw no so a sika a wɔde besi ananmu no ka ho.
So batere betumi ayi pɛtro a efi abo mu a wɔyɛ no afi hɔ koraa?
Ɛnyɛ mprempren mfiridwuma nkutoo. Batere di yiye wɔ dɔnhwerew biara kosi da biara a wɔde sie mu nanso ɛpere bere a awo ntoatoaso ne nea wɔhwehwɛ no nhyia. Sɛ wobɛduru anyinam ahoɔden a wɔyɛ no foforɔ 90-100% a, ɛhia sɛ wɔsi dan kɛseɛ a wɔtumi yɛ foforɔ boro so, asasepɔn-a ɛtrɛw transmission grids, anaa mfiridwuma a ɛka ho te sɛ hydrogen storage anaa pumped hydro. Battery tumi ma 70-90% renewable penetration a ɛho ka sua, nanso 10-30% a etwa to no hwehwɛ ano aduru foforo.
So batere yɛ adwuma wɔ mmeae a awɔw wom?
Lithium-ion batere hwere adwumayɛ wɔ awɔw a ano yɛ den mu, ɛwom sɛ nnɛyi nhyehyɛe ahorow no bi ne ɔhyew a wɔhwɛ so a ɛma ɔhyew a eye sen biara a wɔde yɛ adwuma no kɔ so. Adwumayɛ a wɔsɛe no bɛyɛ kɛse wɔ -20℃, nanso ɔhyew nhyehyɛe betumi akura adwumayɛ mu a ɛho ka a ɛso tew kakra wɔ adwumayɛ nyinaa mu. Wɔ nneyɛe mu no, grid-scale installations yɛ adwuma yiye wɔ atifi fam aman ne Canada nyinaa. Asotwe a wɔde ma wɔ adwumayɛ mu yiyedi ho (ɛtaa yɛ 5-10% wɔ wim tebea a ɛyɛ nwini mu) no yɛ nea wotumi di ho dwuma sɛ wɔde toto mfaso a ɛwɔ so no ho a.
Sɛ wɔde batere toto nsu a wɔde sie a wɔde pɔmpɔ gu mu ho a, ɔkwan bɛn so na?
Nsuo a wɔde pɔmpɔ gu mu no ma ɛka a ɛba fam koraa wɔ-kilowatt-dɔnhwerew biara mu ($20 vs. $100-200 ma batere) nanso ɛhia asase ho nsɛm pɔtee-mmepɔw anaa asase ase abodan. Nsu a wɔde pɔmpɛ nso gye mfe pii ansa na wɔama kwan na wɔasisi, bere a batere a wɔde si hɔ no tumi de adi dwuma wɔ asram pii mu. Batere ma bere a wɔde yɛ adwuma ntɛmntɛm na ɛma wotumi yɛ nsakrae kɛse wɔ sɛnea wɔde besisi hɔ no mu. Wɔ application dodow no ara fam, titiriw nea ɛhwehwɛ sɛ wɔde di dwuma ntɛmntɛm wɔ baabi a ɛbɛn mmeae a wɔde nneɛma gu no, batere di nkonim ɛmfa ho sɛ wɔbɔ ka kɛse no. Sɛ wɔde nneɛma pii sie bere tenten wɔ asase a ɛfata mu a, nsu a wɔde pɔmpɔ gu mu no da so ara yɛ nea ɛkorɔn.
Nneɛma bɛn na ɛkanyan wɔn ma wɔde batere sie?
Federal investment tax credit ma 30% rebate wɔ system ka nyinaa so ma owia-plus-storage, na seesei standalone storage nso fata. Aman pii de nkannyan foforɔ ka ho-California Self-Awoɔ ntoatoasoɔ Nkannyan Dwumadie no de kɔsi $200 ma wɔ kilowatt-dɔnhwereɛ biara mu, Massachusetts yɛ ConnectedSolutions nhyehyɛeɛ a ɛtua ka wɔ ahwehwɛdeɛ mmuaeɛ mu kyɛfa ho. Hwɛ DSIRE database ma mprempren federal ne state incentives wɔ wo mpɔtam hɔ. Nneɛma a wɔde kanyan nkurɔfo no taa sesa bere a nhyehyɛe ahorow no du sikasɛm mu anohyeto ahorow ho anaasɛ nhyehyɛe foforo fi ase no.
Atemmu no: Ahoɔden Asase a Wɔasan Ayɛ no Foforo
Enti, so batere a wɔde yɛ ahoɔden foforo betumi atew ɛka so? Data no ka yiw-asi so dua-nanso ɛde nuance a ɛho hia a ɛfa baabi, bere, ne onii ho.
Batere a wɔde sie no atwam afi sɔhwɛ a ne bo yɛ den so akɔ mfiridwuma a ɛyɛ sikasɛm mu ahoɔden so. Hardware ho ka akɔ fam 93% firi afe 2010. Sika pii a wɔnya no ma mfasoɔ a ɛyɛ den ba wɔ gua a ɛyɛ papa so. Nhyehyɛe mmoa ma gye a wogye tom no yɛ ntɛmntɛm wɔ baabi a sikasɛm nnɔɔso koraa.
Nanso ɛka a wɔtew so no yɛ adwuma wɔ mmeae abiɛsa a ɛsono emu biara. Hardware nkɔso (Horizon 1) ma sikakorabea ntɛm ara denam instɔlehyɛn a ne bo nyɛ den so. Adwumayɛ mu nsakraeɛ (Horizon 2) ma mfasoɔ a ɛkɔ so denam grid optimization ne arbitrage so. Nhyehyɛeɛ foforɔ (Horizon 3) kwati sika a wɔsɛe no wɔ nnwuma ho a anka ɛbɛyɛ ahyɛdeɛ.
Nsakraeɛ kɛseɛ no betumi ayɛ adwene mu: batere nyɛ ɛka-ɛyɛ mfiridwuma a ɛma wotumi yɛ adwuma a ɛma ahoɔden a wɔyɛ no foforɔ a ne boɔ yɛ mmerɛ tumi kɔ. Mprempren mframa ne owia ahoɔden a wɔde ka nneɛma a wɔkora so ho no ne fossil awo ntoatoaso si akan tẽẽ wɔ bo ne ahotoso nyinaa ho. Ná eyi nyɛ nokware mfe anum a atwam ni. Akyinnye biara nni ho sɛ ɛte saa nnɛ.
Sɛ yɛhwɛ yɛn anim a, hwɛ kwan sɛ wɔbɛkɔ so atew ɛka so akosi afe 2030 ne akyi bere a nneɛma a wɔyɛ no nsenia, nnuru a wɔyɛ no tu mpɔn, na gua ahorow nyin no. Battery a wɔde di dwuma no bɛkɔ soro kɛse afi gigawatts 26 wɔ U.S. nnɛ akɔ 100+ gigawatts wɔ mfe du awiei. Installation biara ma nea edi hɔ no som bo kɛse denam grid nkabom a ɛma tu mpɔn, ahotoso a ɛda adi, ne ɛka a wɔatew so bio no so.
Ahoɔden nsakraeɛ no ntwɛn sɛ batere ho ka bɛkɔ fam bio-ɛrekɔ so dedaw, a ɛka mu nkɔsoɔ kɛseɛ a wɔanya dedaw no ama ayɛ ntɛmntɛm. Wɔ nnwuma a wɔde di dwuma, nnwuma, ne afiewuranom a wɔwɔ tebea a ɛfata mu fam no, ahoɔden a wɔyɛ no foforo a wɔde ka nneɛma a wɔkora so ho no nyɛ daakye. Ɛyɛ mprempren de, na ɛrekɔ so ayɛ nea eye sen biara wɔ sikasɛm mu.
Nneɛma Titiriw a Wɔde Kɔ
Battery a wɔde hyɛ mu ho ka kɔɔ fam 93% firi afe 2010 kɔsi afe 2024, na wɔahyɛ sɛ ɛbɛkɔ fam bio akɔsi afe 2030
Texas gyee adetɔfoɔ dɔla ɔpepem 750 wɔ afe 2024 ahohuru berɛ mu nko ara denam batere a wɔde sie so
Atenaeɛ nhyehyɛeɛ tumi tew anyinam ahoɔden ho ka so 30-80% wɔ tebea a ɛyɛ papa mu a berɛ-a wɔde di dwuma no dodoɔ
Botae ahorow abiɛsa a ɛsono emu biara: hardware a wɔkora so, adwumayɛ mu nsakrae, ne nhyehyɛe a wɔsan yɛ no foforo
Asase ne dwumadie-nneɛma pɔtee na ɛkyerɛ sɛ ebia batere tew ɛka so ma wɔn a wɔde di dwuma pɔtee bi anaa
Ɔman ne ɔman nkannyan betumi atua 40-50% wɔ instɔlehyɛn ho ka mu, na ama mfaso a wonya no atu mpɔn kɛse
Lithium-ion battery di mu wɔ da biara da akorae mu nanso bere a wɔde sie no hwehwɛ mfiridwuma a ɛka ho
Data Fibea ahorow
Nneɛma titiriw a wonya fi mu ne Amanaman Ntam Ahoɔden a Wɔyɛ Foforo Dwumadibea no ka ho nhwehwɛmu (IRENA.org), Ɔman Ahoɔden a Wɔyɛ Foforo Nhwehwɛmubea Afe afe Mfiridwuma Mfitiase amanneɛbɔ (NREL.gov), U.S. Ahoɔden Amanneɛbɔ Dwumadibea no deployment data (EIA.gov), Wood Mackenzie Energy Storage Monitor amanneɛbɔ, BloombergNEF battery bo a wodi akyi, California Independent System Operator adwumayɛ ho nsɛm (CAISO.com), Clean Energy Associates gua nhwehwɛmu, Contemporary Amperex Technology boɔ ho amanneɛbɔ, Goldman Sachs battery gua so nkɔmhyɛ, ne IEEE Spectrum mfiridwuma mu nhwehwɛmu.